Destination choice modelling -

Destination choice modelling can be employed to analyse the choices that tourists make when selecting between different holiday destinations. The data for a destination choice modelling analysis are often obtained from a survey in which prospective tourists state their choices in a series of hypothetical choice scenarios. In each scenario, the choice alternatives are described in terms of destination and/or trip attributes. The modelling yields estimates of the relative importance of attributes and can be used to predict market share changes resulting from changes in attributes. An issue that deserves investigation is the use of destination names in the stated choice task. Using the names of destinations to label the alternatives in a choice scenario would be expected to enhance the degree of reality of the task as well as the predictive validity of the choice model. On the other hand, the experimental design of the choice scenarios may result in distorted responses if destination descriptions in the choice task do not match survey respondents' perceptions associated with the destination names. In that case, the use of unlabelled choice options might be preferred. It is unclear a priori whether labelled or unlabelled alternatives should be used in the choice task. In this paper, an investigation of the labelling issue is reported in the context of a 2002 choice modelling analysis of short-break holiday destinations by residents from Melbourne, Australia. One half of the sampled subjects completed a choice task that included destination names, while the other half completed a task that contained unlabelled choice alternatives. The comparative results of the two stated choice tasks are discussed, and implications for destination choice modelling applications are drawn. Paper presented at the conference ‘Tourism Modelling and Competitiveness: Implications for Policy and Strategic Planning’, October/November 2003, Paphos, Cyprus. This research is part of Research Project Number 43001 funded by Australia’s Cooperative Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism. I am grateful to Jordan Louviere for providing the experimental design, and I thank Benedict Dellaert and Trevor Mules for their helpful comments. The survey was administered by Market Survey Centre, Sydney. a. Twan Huybers, School of Business University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy Canberra ACT 2600 Australia, Ph: +61 2 6268 8075, Fax: + 61 2 6268 8450, E-mail: [email protected]